Monday, May 09, 2005

Post race evaluation of pre-Spanish GP report

The objective of this post is to assess the accuracy of some estimations and predictions made before the race.

Drat…now that we are getting to the accuracy assessment part, it appears that there is not much to evaluate. While processed data was abundant in supply, there were few (if any) predictions and estimates.

Mark Webber did indeed attempt run on a low fuel strategy, as revealed later. The initial plan was to refuel 3 times. However, this plan could not work due to the following reasons:

Mark failed to gain pole position.
Mark was out-accelerated by Fernando Alonso in the drag down to the first corner during the start (this has been attributed to software issues and lack of power by various speculators).
Mark was overtaken aggressively by Ralf Schumacher.

Trapped behind Ralf Schumacher, Mark could not put in the fast laps that his light-weight car would allow him to. The strategy was then changed to a 2 stop strategy, with the car pitting early and filling up on fuel, running a long second stint before the last stop.

Future pre-race reports might take extra factors into considerations:
Acceleration from standing start, affected by track grip, tyre performance, fuel load, speculated engine power and chassis performance.
Projected spread during initial stint due to differences in lap times and being held back by slightly slower cars.
Tyre wear.

Data analysis will hopefully include:
Q1 lap times to consider unfavourable track conditions (case in point: Juan Pablo Montoya).
Sector times to evaluate the effect of fuel load on performance at each sector.

ps- I am aware that most people don't give a damn about motorsports. These Formula 1 related discussions will be limited to 2 each race, races being spaced on average once every fortnight.